ROBERT LANG: In 2004, the Bush campaign painted the town red—Republican red. The president swept the vote in the nation’s small towns and cities, which the U.S. Census Bureau now officially labels as “micropolitan areas” (or Micros). Bush’s micropolitan voting edge in Ohio exceeded his winning margin in the state by over 18,000 ballots. The Ohio victory gave George Bush 286 electoral votes to John Kerry’s 252, and thus the presidency.
An analysis of the 2004 vote prepared by the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech and as reported by USA Today, shows:
· Bush won micropolitan areas by a margin of 61 to 39 percent over Kerry.
· Bush’s micropolitan vote went from 57 percent in 2000 to 61 percent in 2004.
· Of 573 micropolitan areas, 474 went to Bush, while Kerry had the edge in just 99.
· Bush won 27 of Ohio’s 29 Micros.
(Click the image for a larger view.)
As the term “Micro” implies, these places are generally less populous than metropolitan areas with smaller central cities. Yet almost 30 million people, or one in ten Americans, live in Micros. Some Micros are famous. Branson, Missouri, for example, is a country music mecca. Or consider that Mount Airy, North Carolina—home of actor Andy Griffith and the inspiration behind his classic TV show, Mayberry, R.F.D.—also is a Micro.
The map above illustrates that micropolitan America (like most rural areas) is clearly Bush Country. The president won virtually all of the Micros in the Great Plains and the northern Rockies. Bush also won almost every Micro in the Ohio Valley and the Piedmont South.
Even in blue states such as Oregon (which Kerry won), the Micros still went overwhelmingly for Bush. In Pennsylvania, another blue state, Bush won every micropolitan area.
Micropolitan areas provide challenges and opportunities for both parties—but for now these places are solidly Republican. A look at the 1996 election returns, however, yields some surprising results. Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 8.5 million votes and won the Electoral College 379 to 159. Clinton won most micropolitans in Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri and even picked up almost half of the Micro counties in Ohio. Yet even Clinton still lost most Micros.
The Micro label allows a more sophisticated differentiation between what was moderately rural and is now deep rural. It will enable future candidates to target a more concentrated, although clearly rural-leaning, voter base in micropolitan areas. It appears that Republicans in 2004 had a good sense of these places and made numerous stops in swing-state Micros—especially Ohio. It remains to be seen what strategy the Democrats may develop to try and counter this advantage. Ohio’s 2004 vote shows that a future Democratic presidential candidate would be unwise to ignore Micros, for simply dampening future losses in these places may provide a key to victory. It certainly helped Clinton.
But the real fight in future close elections will be in the transition zone between older suburbs and exurbs in large metropolitan areas. The red and blue split in many metropolitan areas is often between the just-built suburbs and those that are still rapidly growing. In northern Virginia, for example, a line runs through western Fairfax County—between places such as Reston (blue) and Chantilly (red). Beyond Fairfax County to the west is Loudoun County, which stayed all red. In addition to figuring out micropolitan voters, Democratic candidates should also develop strategies to win swing districts at the fringes of mature suburban counties such as Fairfax. If Democrats can sweep these older suburbs it will help offset what are likely to be continued losses at the metropolitan edge and beyond.